Demand and supply are tightening and molybdenum prices are expected to continue rising
The gap in molybdenum supply is expected to be 1.33,2.16 and 30300 tons in 2019-2021, and molybdenum prices are expected to continue to rise. By combing the production capacity and business plans of the world's major molybdenum producers, we expect a small increase in global molybdenum production, with the annual compound growth rate of about 1% in the next three years, while the global molybdenum consumption growth rate is expected to remain around 4% in the next three years with the sustained recovery of downstream demand for molybdenum. Molybdenum prices are expected to continue rising. The price of molybdenum concentrate continued to fall in the middle of 12 years, with 45% of molybdenum concentrate falling from 2000 yuan per ton in 2011 to less than 700 yuan per ton at the end of 15 years, falling below the production cost line of almost all enterprises. At the same time, the continued downturn in prices has also led domestic tungsten-molybdenum mining and smelting enterprises fixed assets investment completed since the peak in 2014 continued to decline, environmental protection, grade decline and other factors also restricted the release of molybdenum supply, the next three years of new mining production capacity will be very small, and with the continued recovery of overseas demand and the improvement of domestic steel demand structure, we believe that the price of molybdenum will be expected to remain high in 2019-2021 and as supply and demand of molybdenum gradually tighten, the price center is expected to gradually rise.